Commercial message: 2026 has brought significant movements in commodity markets so far, and many investors are wondering where the price of gold, oil or cocoa is heading. XTB has prepared an overview of three commodities that are worth paying attention to in the coming months.
Gold: fundamentals remain strong
After a sharp rise in the first half of the year, gold has undergone a correction, but it still remains above the $4,000 per ounce mark. The market so far suggests that investors are taking advantage of the decline to buy rather than sell. Short-term developments will depend on the decisions of the US Fed, the development of real bond yields and the dollar exchange rate. However, in the long term, the fundamentals remain favorable - central banks continue to buy gold, fiscal deficits are growing and geopolitical uncertainty supports interest in this safe metal. According to HSBC, the price of gold could reach $5,000 by the end of 2027, and some scenarios by JP Morgan analysts even assume a rise to $6,000.
CHART: Gold price development (GOLD, H4)
Source: xStation5
Oil: Geopolitics Vs. foundations
Oil prices have rebounded in recent weeks, despite expected downward pressure from OPEC+ production increases. In the short term, prices have been driven primarily by geopolitical factors – tensions between the US and Iran, President Trump’s announcement of a dead deal and subsequent signals of willingness to continue negotiations. Fundamentally, prices are supported by rising refinery margins and seasonal demand for fuels. In the second half of the year, it will be crucial to monitor the balance between geopolitical risks and the underlying fundamentals that determine the future direction of the market.
CHART: BRENT oil price development (OIL, H1)
Source: xStation5
Cocoa: weather and supply decide
Cocoa has been one of the most volatile commodities this year. After falling from record highs of over $12,000, it traded below $3,000 at the start of the year, but prices have rebounded sharply by more than 30% since May. The rise is mainly due to deteriorating crop prospects in West Africa, with heavy rains in Ghana and Ivory Coast making harvesting and transport difficult. In addition, speculative shorting has increased volatility. Nevertheless, cocoa prices remain well below historical levels. maximy, and any new news about the weather or harvest can significantly affect price developments. Thanks to this, cocoa is one of the commodities worth monitoring in the second half of the year.
Pro XTB has prepared for all investors who want to keep up with commodity markets and get detailed information about other interesting assets complete e-book on commodities, where you will find trend analysis, historical price movements and practical trading tips.
CFDs are complex instruments and, due to the use of leverage, come with a high risk of rapid financial loss. 74% of retail investors have experienced a loss. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford the high risk of losing your funds. Investing is risky, invest responsibly.
